MOS Dew Point Forecasts

Posted: 19 Oct 2021 05:32 AM, Views: 18
The IEM curates a few forecast datasets including the Model Output Statistics (MOS) from a few models produced by the NWS. The MOS takes forecast output from the weather models and attempts to produce bias corrected time series forecasts for point observation locations typically at the airport weather stations. The featured chart presents a qualitative comparison of the MOS output for dew point temperature for Ames along with the actual observations. The bars represent the range of forecast values at the given valid time via the ensemble of previously issued MOS forecasts for that time. Since the MOS is run multiple times per day and has a forecast out a number of days, an individual forecast time will have a range of forecasts based on that time lagged ensemble. Anyway, that chart nicely shows the roller-coaster dew point temperatures have been on this month with only a modest increase over the next few days expected. You can generate plots like these via this website for other models and airport forecast locations of your choice!
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