IEM Daily Feature
Wednesday, 19 February 2020

How's the GFS MOS doing?

Posted: 19 Feb 2020 05:34 AM

Perhaps thankfully for human weather forecasters and their jobs, the various weather prediction models are not perfect. The featured chart presents a comparison between time-lagged ensemble forecast temperature ranges for afternoon high and morning low temperature for Des Moines from the GFS Model Output Statistics (MOS) for this February. A good and confident forecast would appear as a tight range of values (bars) with the observation falling safely inside that range. The low temperature forecast has particularly been a struggle with very few hits shown by this chart.

Good = 9
Bad = 0
Abstain = 1

Tags:   mos