For Ames, the average month to date temperature is currently beating what the previous month finished up with. Having a warmer September than August is somewhat rare for the site, only happening three times on record since 1893 with the most recent occurrence during 2004. The featured chart looks at the probability of this happening this year given the current month to date average temperature and then appending all previous Septembers onto the end. Only about 5% of the previous scenarios would result in an average temperature beating August's value. So we are saying there is a chance...

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